This is not an analysis of the situation in the country that has always attracted the attention not only to its ancient heritage, but also the turbulent events at the turn of the first half of last century.

These are just notes of an eye-witness, the contents of which are drawn from personal observations and conversations with Egyptians belonging to different classes and estates.

Hegel once said that “The owl of Minerva spreads its wings only with the falling of dusk”.

He meant that humanity is late with the comprehension of the most important questions of life.

This phrase of a great thinker comes to mind when we start thinking about the events in Egypt, especially if they happen right in front of your eyes.

About Democracy

What is democracy? An interesting question for a country where 80% of the population are convinced that the constitution, legislation are Western “stuff”. All the laws have long been written in the Koran - and that’s all.

Nevertheless, many Egyptians are still trying to understand the meaning of “democracy”, whether it is good or bad.

They always called Mubarak “Pharaoh” in frank conversations.

It is absurd to talk about democracy as the observance of human rights or freedom of assembly and demonstrations, about fair and transparent elections, because it blows the minds of the majority of citizens who were born and grew up during the reign of Mubarak-”Pharaoh”.

Mass illiteracy also prevents understanding. At the time of Nasser everybody studied.

Under Mubarak’s rule, who held liberalization of the economy, the situation changed.

Officially there are 30% of illiterates in the country. Local sociologists claim that half of the population, if not more is illiterate.

We have to proceed indirectly. One Pharaoh is a tyranny.

When you have a lot of Pharaohs, say two or three dozens - then it will be very democratic.

People think, it was hard to feed one Pharaoh, but now, I fear, there will be a lot of them. How to live then? Perhaps one is better, and we lived and will live on without this dubious democracy?

About life after the “revolution” and insight

Eyes of people are not lighted up any more. After the revolution the life became worse.

Many joint ventures have stopped. Investors escaped, waiting for better times at home.

In Hurghada, a furniture factory stopped in February, and nothing has changed till now.

In the southern provinces and the provinces to the west of the Nile, the state sells so-called “Social cakes” to people who find themselves on the verge of starvation - one pound for 20 cakes.

If this assistance had been targeted, then probably, it would have helped to many people who had been in need of bread. But authorities are not able to provide targeted assistance.

There is no voters’ lists, as well as no lists of poor people. Cakes are sold to everyone. As a result, there are kilometer queues with all consequences.

Tourism industry was heavily affected.

The number of tourists having visited Egypt in the 2nd quarter of 2011, was by 35.4% lower than in 2010, which amounted to 2.5 million tourists and 3.5 million respectively.

New collapse is likely to come.

When hundreds of police officers burst into the headquarters of security forces in Hurghada resort, and only the military can provide security of the local airport, as it happened on October 25, can shake the resolve of even Russian, not to mention spineless West Europeans to spend a holiday on the Red Sea.

Meanwhile, tourism had previously brought to the Egyptian treasury not only 11.5% of GNP, but also provided employment to a great number of working population.

Now, about 100 thousand people who had lost their jobs in hotels, left Hurghada.

Clearly, the citizens of the overpopulated and starving villages of southern Egypt were not happy about their appearance.

In addition, it is necessary to take into account millions of people who had worked for the tourism industry indirectly.

I mean the owners and employees of many restaurants and cafes, shops, tour guides, bus and taxi drivers, the production of souvenirs, clothing, leather goods etc.

Now, many “revolutionaries” began to see clearly. Local Internet is filled with messages under the slogan “Forgive us, Mubarak!” …

About “blowing off steam” from the boiler

Against the backdrop of severe socio-economic situation, the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is forced to maneuver.

It is necessary to look for an external enemy to turn away the wrath of the crowd.

That’s why when on September, 9 the demonstrators stormed the Israeli embassy, no one in Israel or in the embassy could not find Marshal Tantawi.

He was found and the measures to protect the lives of Israeli diplomats were taken only after intervention from Washington.

Another way of “blowing off steam” was to stir up the Muslim Arabs against the Coptic Christians.

It is easy to do, because the Copts, who make approximately 10% of 83 million people in Egypt, take prominent positions in the economy and finances of the country.

30 September, a group of Muslims in the village Marinab (province of Aswan) looted the shops which belong to Copts, beat Christians who tried to protect their property, and burned the local church.

And all this happened with the connivance of the police, consisting of Muslims.

When the Copts went to the streets of Cairo in response to these actions, they were simply seized and taken to a military tribunal.

But the Copts were not allowed to rebuild the burned church. Under the pretext that the temple was built illegally.

Moreover, in the depths of Supreme Council of the Armed Forces “law” was prepared immediately, which, in effect, puts an end to the construction of new Christian churches.

Under new rules, the approval of construction will take many, many years.

To pass the local bureaucracy from the headman of a shabby village to the president, who has to be elected - is not only years, but many, many Egyptian pounds.

We can also add that information about such events is given in a distorted form.

When the Radio El Gouna, belonging to the Copt billionaire Sawiris, had broadcasted everything as it was, it stopped to exist.

About elections

Everyone is talking about elections, but nobody knows when they will take place.

I, a foreigner, had to tell that the elections would be held in three rounds: on November 28, December 14 and January 3.

According to the results, new People’s Assembly (lower house of parliament) will hold its first session on March 17, 2012.

It will be given six months to adopt a new constitution, after which - not earlier that in August 2012 - in Egypt, the first presidential elections since the Mubarak’s overthrow will be held.

It is interesting, the “revolutionaries” have toppled Mubarak for 18 days (with the blessing of Washington, which is essential), and his former loyal companions will need 18 months to pass his power in the hands of civilians.

It shows that they are not in a hurry and do not want to transfer power.

Who can get the power?

When it comes to elections, the “Muslim Brotherhood” will be their favorites.

According to the official public opinion poll published in late September, 35% of Egyptians are going to vote for their party of freedom and justice.

But we already know the real value of official statistics in Egypt.

Marshal Tantawi knows it too.

Brothers’ rate may be higher.

Supreme Council of the Armed Forces fears it.

Therefore, it is not necessary that the elections should be held at the appointed time.

About the trial of Mubarak

This is very short and clear.

Military forces know very well that award him a sentence means to accuse themselves.

As all of them for over 30 years have created a regime which fell in February.

By the way, the regime had also good moments.

Indeed, stability is better than social upheaval.

True, social elevator did not work, but there wasn’t such poverty, as there is now.

In addition, Mubarak created a ​​resort area on the Red Sea, to provide jobs for millions of people.

Their best option is to slowly bring the defendant suffering from a serious illness to the death . What they are doing in every way delaying the process.

About the Owl of Minerva

Being far from conspiracy versions of what is happening in the Middle East, North Africa and Egypt in particular, I am nevertheless convinced that the West is aware of impending events here and tried to take advantage of them.

It is no secret that the U.S. has a vital interest in weakening Chinese and Russian influence in this region, rich in energy resources.

In 2010, China overtook the United States on Middle East oil purchases. How couldn’t they be startled?

As for the U.S. claims on democracy and other Western trinkets - it is all just a make-up on the withered face of neoliberalism.

How else to understand the “security certificates” for Middle Eastern medieval monarchies?

The thing is, that the notorious “sons of bitches” were as close as possible to Washington and, moreover, they controlled the situation in their countries.

Mubarak could not - he paid. Others continue to rule.

So the main question is whether the people of Egypt understands what is happening with the country and on whose will.

If not, then Hegel, referring to the owl of Minerva, was right.